Carol Jagger, Trends in Healthy Life Expectancy – What Might the Future Hold? - Descripción

One of the most important questions with population ageing is whether the extra years of life we are enjoying, around two years increase in life expectancy every decade, are healthy ones, and how trends will play out in the future. This question is important not only for the provision of health and social care but also for pension policy. In this lecture I will first briefly review trends in healthy life expectancy in Europe and wider. I will then focus on a unique UK study which allows the comparison of a range of health expectancies, including years spent in different care states, across two generations of older adults 20 years apart. Finally I will discuss the factors that may be driving past trends in healthy life expectancy and how these might play out in the future, reporting new forecasts of health expectancies from a novel dynamic microsimulation model PACSim.

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