Dalkhat Ediev. Projecting Elderly Populations in Ageing Society: Methods and Issues. Part 3 - Descripción

Summary: The increasing size and share of the elderly population constitutes an important research agenda as well as posing methodological challenges in population estimation and projection. These include extending life tables to older ages, projecting mortality trends, and projecting elderly households and family networks. The course will cover these topics, focusing on estimating and extending life tables; alternative paradigms in projecting mortality trends; and producing household and familial-network projections. The availability and accuracy of life tables at old age is a key input for the analysis and projection of ageing populations. When estimating life tables to older ages, we will discuss how to improve the Horiuchi-Coale and Mitra models as well as the classical life table method when dealing with age exaggeration and/or abridged input life tables. We will also learn how to improve the accuracy of extrapolations of life tables to older ages when using extrapolation models, such as the Gompertz or logistic model. Conventional projections tended to underestimate mortality improvements and population growth at old age. We will discuss sources and alternative ways to address this shortcoming. Using the population projection as a starting point, we will discuss how to build household and familial-network projections consistent with observed tendencies and available population projections.

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